PIMA COUNTY'S PEOPLE, ECONOMY, WATER AND LAND
Pima County's Social Demographics
David TaylorPima County's Economy
Marshall VestPima County's Water
Michael McNultyPima County's Land
Frank Behlau
SHARON BRONSON
Chair, Pima County Board of SupervisorsI am Sharon Bronson, Chair of the Pima County Board of Supervisors for those of you who may not know me and I want to welcome all of you here today for this third session. I would like to recognize Joe Joaquin, Tohono O'Odham Nation Cultural Affairs; Daniel Preston, San Xavier District; Renee Red Dog, Planner for the Tohono O'Odham Nation and Kathy Jacobs with the Arizona Department of Water Resources. I would like to take this opportunity to thank all of you for coming. I would like to note that a session was added to the Educational Series in December when the Tohono O'Odham Nation will present cultural and historic information as the process goes forward. At this point, I will turn the meeting over to Chuck Huckelberry, County Administrator to tell you about updates.
CHUCK HUCKELBERRY
Pima County AdministratorWe have, for those of you who picked up a packet, several memorandums containing materials submitted to the Board of Supervisors over the last week. One of the memorandums is an update and status report about what is occurring with the plan, what activities have occurred and it provides all the summaries and high points. If you are interested in a longer version of the update, we have bound versions containing more detail. We are moving along on the technical side. Staff has been doing a series of introductory technical and/or information reports of all elements of the Plan. A few weeks ago a report was published for the historical and cultural aspects of the plan. We recently published a report on the riparian issue and the water resources element of the plan. As you look around the room you will notice there are many exhibits contained in the larger documents on poster boards set up for viewing. These provide a history of riparian decline and County urbanization that has occurred. We hope that within the next ten days there will be another book on the mountain parks which is similar to other reports that are coming out. The books provide baseline information about each of the elements of the plan are available at the County Administrator's Office for those interested in obtaining a copy. We accept comments, review and critiques for the final product, as we go along. This helps us develop the plan and make it better.
SHARON BRONSON
Chair, Pima County Board of SupervisorsIt is my pleasure as we begin this third session on Pima County's People, Economy and Land, to introduce David Taylor. He is the Planning Program Coordinator for the City of Tucson Planning Department. David has a very extensive resume and I think you will enjoy hearing him speak. Whenever I attend a forum where David speaks, I come away with a smile on my face and a better understanding of who and what we are as citizens of Pima County. His education includes a Masters of Arts and Bachelor's Degree in Anthropology from the University of Arizona. Let me introduce David Taylor at this point.
top of page
PIMA COUNTY'S SOCIAL DEMOGRAPHICS: DAVID TAYLOR
Good morning. It is great of all of you to be here this morning, especially coming out on a hot muggy day in the middle of summer and listen to an economist, two planners and a lawyer. Boy, talk about community spirit.
We are here to help you understand some of those issues such as land, which Frank Behlau will talk to you about, Pima County's economy will be discussed by Marshall Vest and Michael McNulty will talk to you about water issues. I am going to talk to you about social demographics plus everything you did not want to know. The only reason we are here is to help you folks understand the issues and what we are going to do is not give you a set speech. When you are confused and when we say something really stupid, stick your hand up and if we are alert enough to see it, we will stop and talk about what it is that we just got through saying and hopefully help you to solve it.
This is sort of the mother of all slide shows, (Marshall has a nice presentation that has color and 21st century technology). This is a chart about population growth and it is typically the sort of chart that was shown to you by Chambers of Commerce. You should be shocked if you look at this chart for more than a second because it is useless.
Pima County, for 200 centuries, was the home of folks who did not know about these issues because they lived in the land rather than on the land, and then we showed up. Many of the Tohono O'Odham think the neighborhood went to hell on the first day we got here 200 years ago. It was Spain for 30 years, then it was Mexico for 30 years and then people who look like me stole it.
The local residents were so thrilled about being sold to the Yankees in 1854 that they burned all the tax records downtown in a big bonfire in celebration of this event. When people that look like me showed up, what we thought the desert needed was to be arranged, usually like a checker board and so you can tell the part of downtown that was built by the Spaniards, it kind of follows the land. The roads were essentially a cow path. Now your cow was your civil engineer, rather than Mr. Huckelberry. The cow refuses to go up anything more than a 2.5% grade so if you stay on a cow path you are fine.
People that came originally from Northern Europe or England wanted to make the road square and so they spent a lot longer by these shady mountains straightening roads, engineers love to straighten things. The real growth curve is not straight as this curve, that is reality.
Obviously that is a lie, we have had boom and bust, boom and bust. You can see too, here is the real estate glut, this is the new tax law.
Notice that historically, however, after the great war is when we really grew in Pima County. This is a real chart. In the future, you will have both economy and population growth that will look like the past. You will have good times and not so great times. The not so great times in Pima County are better than any good times, you have to keep your focus on it is not that bad.
Here is an example of how the city grows, this could be Eloy, Benson or whatever, nothing happened here until World War II and then both population and area kind of go up in tandem. Why is that? Well, most of Arizona cities tend to be somewhere between 2,500 and 3,000 people to the mile. That is the taste for the views that we come to Arizona for so we never really get very dense. Los Angeles has 7,000 people to the mile, there is no city in Arizona that comes close to that, the City of Tucson has 2,500.
It is okay for you to look at this, it's kind of an age-sex pyramid, this is not a weird game that comes on MTV. Babies are on the bottom, seniors are at the top and ladies are to the right. Now you see the Baby Boomlet, you see the little notch; that is high school age, that is the baby bust and that is the reason Catalina High School was not all that heavily enrolled a couple of years ago.
Over the next 20 odd years, notice how old the Baby Boomers are. Now these people have inherited seven trillion dollars and they spent it all, okay? They have those little ropes around the back of their glasses and they are all driving Saabs and Volvo's but they have BMW brochures in the back seat. They were not hampered by the Depression and did not go through the big war so why care? They have all the money but they really do not like sacrifice.
Here is the net change. From 1995 to 2015, this is how we are going to grow, these are the folks that are not here now but they are going to be. Notice the Baby Boomers represented by that bulge. That bulge is there because the Baby Boomers are creating jobs, serve on committees and they pay taxes, it is going to be a good fiscal picture. You wanted to do something heroic over the next 20 years, this demographic picture says you have got to have the money. That's good. Now you notice the 30-year-olds come and disappear. All the heavy metal rock stations better get into golden oldies. Then there is this little bulge, the 1.3 kids the yuppies are going to have. Well, they are not all yuppies, they are closer to my age they grumpies, grim and ruthless and upwardly mobile professionals. Notice here at the top of the chart that there is nothing. What is that? Well, in 2015 we will have fewer 75-year-olds, I will be 75 in 2015. There are fewer of us and they are here today. It is the burden of testosterone. You have here 20,000 women over the age of 85 in twenty years, they will have outlived their pension. What do we do? Ladies, save your money!
Here is 2025, look at how square this population pyramid is. In the developing nation of Guatamala, very wide at the bottom and very narrow at the top. When it looks this square, you have Denmark. Why do you care about that? Any demographic age-sex pyramid that looks like this, those are socialists. It is a weird fact that the Baby Boomlet generation is going to turn socialist. Was that sobbing? No?
Here is 2050, usually the limit even in a planner's planning horizon, and look at how square it is. You notice the Baby Boomlet? What we have is about one-third of the populations beyond it. About one-third of the population is still in school so one of the issues that happens when they get past 2015 is that taxes really start to weigh on people that are working. It is like Scandinavia, the tax rates are rather high because that is the nature of how many people who are younger and older than the normal workforce.
Another thing about the population age: there are many discussions in the city about decaying infrastructure and about schools that are under-enrolled. It is the nature of both the level of the County and in anybody's neighborhood that population waxes and wanes. This is normal, it is not some fool at the city who made a crazy decision but one of the things you probably do not want to do to a valley like ours, with population growth like ours, is to continue to put huge, sunk costs and expenses into fixed things that only have one use. We used to build 33 room school rooms, one furnace and one cooler and in those neighborhoods we need one-half that size school. If you have to think about this at all, what you want is multiple use facilities. In fact, when you are in the downside of the population cycle, it can be used for something else and then all the empty nesters and the widows disappears from that neighborhood and it fills up with young people again and you are right back to where you were 25 years ago.
For 200 centuries, 100% of us were Native Americans and that started to decline as Spain arrived. About 90% of the population in Pima County 140 years ago was Hispanic which declined to about 25% by 1950 and by 2050, we will be back to about 40%. Here, the chart shows no Anglo's until all of a sudden, the population just jumped straight up in the air by 1850 with 80% of the population of the valley being Anglo. Here, the chart shows African- Americans, Asians and Native Americans. In the future, the valley will be like Hawaii in that there will be no majority culture here in 2050. About 40% will be Anglo, 40% Hispanic, and approximately 6% each will be Native Americans, African-Americans and Asians so we are a chocolate chip cookie. We are still going to celebrate our cultural differences. Remember "Tucson Eat Yourself" every October? We will not be a milk shake, we will be chocolate chip cookie dough and for the residents, part of the great attraction of the valley is the fact they do not come here looking for Illinois, they come here to see what Native Americans and Hispanics have built architecturally. We come here to celebrate the values that distinctive cultures bring to our valley. There are over 200 ancestral groups in Tucson that have more than 500 people. There are 8,000 households in Pima County that speak German. We are like a United Nations and Tucson economically is like Ellis Island, it is just that we did not have an ocean.
Our population changes rapidly, this is just one year indicating in-migration 57,000 and people leaving, 40,000 folks; people being born at about 11,600, people dying 6,600 and the net change at 22,000 which is approximately what it is this year. That happens every year with one-third of the population, nearly 300,000 people in Pima County think there is an end to Wilmot. They are clueless about water issues, never heard of Mike McNulty, think Mr. Huckelberry is the Mayor. They do not take a morning or evening newspaper and they get their entire input of the world from KNST and CNN, they are non-involved, they do not vote so amongst the real issues that you hear in this community is, how do you get enough stakeholders to care enough to make sacrifices? Because you work in a strategic process to develop a long-range plan to preserve all the things that hold us down here, all the things you cherish and the issue is, one-third of the population turns old, one-third of the population of the valley is going to be less in five years. Not only is there an annual cycle and Marshall will discuss the economy, here on this chart you can see the wax and wanes of residential permits. It has been like that since World War II, it does not matter who the politicians are in Washington or Tucson so amongst the things we have to think about as we formulate business plans, County budgets, city budgets that run like a roller coaster, it is never flat. Every not-for-profit and those jurisdictions with their budget requests for the following year, it is always last year's budget plus 3% of the base for the chief executive. This is stupid! This is the economy you would expect, it is the nature of how we work here.
We talked a little bit about in and out migration, where do Tucsonans come from? Phoenix! You have more Tempe graduates in Tucson than there are in Maricopa County, then surrounding Arizona communities and the Los Angeles area. Now most of the Californians who move here are simply looking for the same at a cheaper rate. They are from Chicago, they are people who believe in lawns. Remember "Lawn of the Year"?
We export people also. Where do we send people? To Maricopa County. We send them right back to Phoenix and surrounding counties and Southern California. We actually export more people to Phoenix than we import. Foreign/Overseas in the Los Angeles area and other Southern California locations in surrounding counties is where we send those folks.
What about the folks that come here? They are almost all poorer than existing residents. Foreign or overseas sources of our immigration was a very high proportion. We are upside down at $15,000.00 per year on the relative salaries of people coming in versus people going out. Whereas, if we can import people from Dallas and Seattle we are doing real well. Why do you care about this? Most of the people come to Tucson are like me; coming in on bald eagles and five cylinders. They have immediate need for social services and support systems and those are very expensive to fund, aren't they? It is going to grow! But, they are like most of those folks that landed at Ellis Island, with a little help, with a little luck and some hard work they are running things. They are the American Dream in the sense of a move, a move will solve a family problem, you just have to believe it. American mobility, the freedom to move is so precious. I had a Russian friend visiting here who was astounded that Americans can move anyplace without telling anyone or without registering. Once we are here, we move along.
This chart illustrates residents counted in the last census with about 43% of the people are in the same house, 30% were in a different house. Every time we talk about impact fees for the newcomers, 30% of the new home buyers are already here. They are, as you are, trading up, or the house is too big after the kids leave, let's get a townhouse, let's not be landed gentry anymore. Once we are here we move around a lot.
This chart applies to the city but applies to counties too, and 57% of the residents in the City of Tucson rent, 57% of the renters moves again in less than 18 months. Here is the apartment manager giving away the microwave and the free carpet upgrade and about one-half of the rental population in the city has jumped straight up in the air and redistributes itself every summer. It is U-Haul madness. About three years ago 49% of the U-Hauls west of the Mississippi were in Phoenix. They called me up in a panic and wanted to know what to do. I said, "Keep them, they will be leaving soon enough." At the neighborhood scale with this kind of movement in and out of the County and around the community - (I am in my eleventh house and I have lived here for 42 years. I am normal as it turns out. Even the homeowner moves on the average every three and a half years in Pima County) - stakes in neighborhood scale issues can be pretty low when you move that much. It is hard to set the renter in a big apartment complex real interested in zoning issues because in their heart of hearts, they know they are gone next year, they are not here. Or the big companies like Microsoft or Raytheon have not moved me out so amongst the real challenges for you who have demonstrated that you are good stewards, that you care and you are here, you are 15 miles west of where you live probably, on a Saturday morning, and one of the real challenges is tying up people in today's issues, irrespective of their point of view, so they will do something, they will act, they will vote and make commitments to bond issues.
Labor Force Participation: why would you care about that? Boys are on the left, ladies are on the right and notice the growth in labor force participation is lead by females. Some of that is changing cultural attitudes about, "I can be president." Do you notice the boys, they are flatter than a pancake. What is going to happen in the future is the labor force participation rate of the females is going to approximate the national average, it is going to be somewhere in the mid-1960's if not higher. Why do you care about that? Mom is not home, everyone has one of these stupid cell phones or a Day Timer or a pager stuck in their ear. For some reason elementary school teachers and principals believe that holding teas at 3:00 p.m. is a clever way to meet the neighborhood. Well, there is nobody home, Mom cannot leave work to go to a tea with the principal at 3:00 p.m. Attendance at evening meetings is comfortable for them, they are all home, everybody is going to have Day Timer entries.
How else did we change recently? This chart illustrates a change in the household type between 1980 and 1990 with 7% of the growth like Ozzie and Harriet; 50% growth in non-family households and a lot of growth in single parent housing. In 1980, one-quarter of the households were like Ozzie and Harriet and by 1990, they accounted for only one-fifth. Forty percent of the households in the city are not families, they are single, they are widows, they are people sharing living quarters and persons of the opposite sex sharing living quarters.
How do you sell a school bond when one in five households have kids? Are we always going to finance heavy infrastructure by taxes on property? You have to secure a bridge by taxes on property. Urban behavior: 98% of Arizona's future growth is urban. Ninety percent of all growth in the next 50 years will occur in three counties. We are the fifth most urbanized state in the nation out of 50 and in 25 years we are going to be second.
Now the only way to pay for an urban scale for service delivery is urban tax on urban behavior. Typically now, we call them sales taxes, those are the taxes on services. I meet the same pothole in the road going to see the CPA as I do going to Walgreen's but if some bureaucrat like me, some Communist were to go before the Supervisors or the Mayor and Council and said, "We need to tax services," it would be like Godzilla meets Bambi, you could not even find a grease spot where I used to stand. If you wish to fund things to meet the quality of life at least as high as it is today, you must think about urban revenue streams, irrespective of the jurisdiction question, you have to shift from a 15-year-old, works in Greenlee County whatever they mine, you have to shift from that way of doing things to the exactions on urban behavior. This gentleman and I traded service, some bureaucrat reaches in there and grabs a couple of pennies, that is what is going to happen for retiring land like Bellota Ranch, fixing a road and Swan and River, the funding of libraries.
Since we are talking about money, between 1980 and 1990, adjusted
for inflation, incomes went down in Arizona including Pima County
and the City of Tucson, we got poorer. I call this the Reagan/Bush
miracle.
Here are the people we compete with for the good jobs, we are dead last. We are the poorest of the bunch, we are not a Gucci, Briand, Chablis town, we are a steak and taters bunch. When I moved here in the 1950's a seven course meal in Tucson was a six-pack and a burro. We have gone slightly up market since then but we live next to a Third World Nation that ships us desperate and poor people who are looking for an opportunity, that will never go away. However, that is not why we get poorer, we get poorer because we do not have the skills in Pima County in the marketplace to compete. There is no evil myths of migration that has caused this, our kids just are not smart enough, it is that simple. We did not grow well because we did not grow with enough ideas and learned skills.
Remember the student curve? The solid line on the chart is
the Anglo rate of earnings, this is all of the money earned by
employees including salaries and profit divided by all the workers
so think of it as an average wage. The solid line is unadjusted
for inflation and it looks like things are very bullish. The one
that has all the little marks is adjusted for inflation, it is
flatter than a pancake which is why it is hard for Mr. Huckelberry
to build those bridges that we need, he is running out of money.
Adjusted for inflation, he has less on his plate than was once
the case since we have doubled the population during this period.
Slide: POVERTY DEFINED
The rich are getting richer
The poor are getting poorer
The middle class is losing ground
What eats up the resources of the City and the County? Dealing with poverty, fixing houses, supporting poor people who are desperate and some bad things happened on the poverty scale. The rich are getting richer. It is nice to qualify as being rich, you are slightly about one dollar higher in the middle. The poor are getting poorer and the middle class is losing ground, that is the national picture. Marshall is going to show you some statewide information in just a few minutes. Sort the income in the nation from top to bottom and then cut it five ways so you have a top one-fifth and you have a bottom one-fifth. The bottom one-fifth of American households makes a median income at 4% of the money; the bottom 20% earns 4% of the money. The top 20% earns half the money.
The Greek Theory: There are three curves, each one of which has the same median value of income, a perfectly flat distribution that you might call that Sweden. This blue thing which is a one-humped camel that we make for all the middle class Americans and a mobile distribution with two humps in it, we will call that the rich hump. This is a theoretical distribution and it has the same meaning. In 1980, what happens to the distribution of income in Pima County? You can see there is median income and there are the rich folks with the same hours, same scale ten years later. The middle disappeared from the middle class and some headed towards a rest home and if they went back a ways they would look up in Tierra De Las Lexis in the foothills. If they went this way, we are trying to treat them at Kino. Is there anything unique to Tucson about that? No, the same thing happened to America.
In 1964, when LBJ was President of the United States, remember the "War on Poverty," when you were throwing money at sin? One-quarter of American households were working poor. We threw money at sin for ten years and halved it to 12%. When last measured here in 1994, it was back to 18% and it is currently back to 23%. A quarter of American working households are below the poverty level. Remember I said we did not create wealth? The school system just did not do the job nationally and it sure did not in Pima County.
Lately, things have improved a bit. Home ownership in Pima County peaked at 66% in 1980, it was down to 61% in the 1990 census and declined by 1996 clear down to 52%. It has come back recently but it still is not back to where it was in 1980. Some of the lack of home ownership is Generation X not was into grass. They do Rio Cancion, red Miatas, dual income, no kids, let's party. They just are not into grass. Some of it is due to increased wealth. The upshot on poverty is getting worse but lately is improved. The 1980 census, where were we? We were 13% in Pima County, it went up to 17% plus in ten years, remember the Reagan/Bush miracle? By 1993, it is still up. Now a lot of people think you can work yourself out of poverty. The County, in 1989 and 1993, the poverty rate went up 4% points. One of the real issues for us is workforce training, getting the skills of Pima County up to a living wage. Now we can do some work study, we can mandate that the wage just be "X" but that does not work in the long run.
Remember the idea where anybody can move? If we were to raise arbitrarily the minimum wage to say $20.00 an hour, just like that, the Board of Supervisors just declare that minimum wage, the entire population of Texas would be in Pima County in one week. You cannot fix it that way. The way you fix it is you train the kids to have a real job. You make your kids leave your house permanently so they can have a real job.
Slide: Problems Still Remain
Poverty too high
Crime
Education
- High dropout rate
- Students poorly prepared for the world of work
Income gap is widening
Things have improved, the County is doing very well here. Illinois,
in the worst quarter, Tucson had in the last 25 years better in
an entire year than Illinois has at any time? So what are we whining
about? Poverty still remains, poverty is still too high even though
it is improved. Crime is nothing to write home to mother about.
Education of all the things we need to fix is right up there.
We have high drop out rates and students are poorly prepared for
the world of work, I am sorry to say that. The income gap is widening
which Marshall will talk about briefly in just one minute.
Slide: Arizona Rankings, 1998
(1=best, 50 worst)
Crime rate 38
Drug-induced deaths 46
Births to unwed mothers 46
Infant mortality rate 45
Number of children in poverty 48
Teen-age pregnancy rate 48
High school graduation rate 44
Here are the Kids Count in 1998 and the scores of Arizona. This is out of 50 states, you can see where we rank. This is a sorry picture. This is nothing to be proud of. We have a lot of work ahead of us.
Slide: AZ Has a Third-World
Dropout Rate
Fourteen % of Arizona teens are high school dropouts
the highest in the nation
One-third of all Hispanic students fail to finish high school
The Dropout Rate for Hispanic students is 2.5 times that of
Blacks and 3.5 times the rate for Whites.
Remember we talked about dropouts? Well, I will not read the chart to you but believe it or not, it is not getting any better at this. We have some real improvement to do.
Now lastly, how do we pay for stuff? I mentioned this before, this is your net assessed value for Americans that shows how you pay for stuff. You can see that most of it comes from homeowners and businesses. Utilities you would think had some legislators and lobbyists in Washington or Phoenix. Utilities just do not pay much, do they? Homeowners pay for most of it and business pays for the rest.
Now let us say for the sake of argument that my name is Charles Huckelberry, he is much prettier and taller than I am, but let's pretend like that is me. I used to have, adjusted for inflation and per capita because my expenses as a County Administrator, kind of divided up person by person for road improvements, the library system or whatever. So let us say that I have $2,800.00 per capita in 1977 dollars and today, I've got about $1,500.00 dollars. Now how do you think the Board of Supervisors reacts to a chart like that? There is only one way to fix it; if the costs are still going up you have to raise the rate. Why? One-half of your budget is property taxes, right? Well, it should be higher than the city because this is an urban County, delivering urban scale service demanded by us. There have been very few demands down at the Supervisors Hearings lately to drop services, very few. There is about one-half as much money per capita to work with than was the case 20 years ago. So why do we bother you with stuff like that? You are going to have to deem making decisions about what you want, what you want to pay for and what you do not want to pay for because there is not enough to do it all. We have to make some priorities and we have to make some decisions.
Slide: WHY DO WE BUILD AT THE EDGE?
DEMAND SIDE
WE SELL THE SIZZLE, NOT THE STEAK
SUPPLY SIDE
And you are going to start looking at this: Why do we build at
the edge? It is very expensive to service. Think of the area of
the circle, every time we increase the rate of the center the
area goes up exponentially. Well, so does Mr. Huckelberry's service
costs. Sheriff Deputies travel on poor roads and the average in
the city is 25 acres of road per 1,000 and in the unincorporated
County is it is 80 acres of road per 1,000. Well what other theory
illustrates growth? It is on the supply side. The dirt is cheaper
at the edge, the problem is in the middle, that's it we do not
have to look. It is still cheaper to go out to the edge but that
is not the problem. You and I came with a thirst for space, we
spent two centuries building a one-story town. I used to have
in my mind that Tucson had this law of height, I call it the "Aluminum
Lawn Chair Law." In your aluminum lawn Chair, on your patio
looking at the Catalina Range over the pyracanthas, okay and over
the marble chip roof next door, the roof could not be higher than
one-half the Catalina Views, that was the law of height and in
town, anyone who builds anything higher than that, it was a huge
plus. Well, anyone who can live that good in town, we have decided
we want 17 acres and a horse for Johnny. We want Camelot among
the saguaros. Most Tucsonans I know want a six-lane divided interstate
at the end of their mailbox, you leave in the morning that goes
directly and without a light to their shaded parking space at
their place of work. We are so ambivalent about growth, we want
a team that whips ASU every year, we have our symphony, we have
more sales and the minute you go home and fire up the margarita
machine, you are an instant Sierra Club member. You want fewer
Okies like me scaring your quail or building on that lot the realtor
said would always be empty.
Slide: WHAT CAN BE DONE?
DETERMINE WHAT GODS WE WILL WORSHIP
WHAT CAN NOT BE EXPECTED
In Pima County, we have 842,000 people. The planners who work
for you, the County Administrators that work for you, elected
officials who work for you cannot make you do anything you do
not want to. You must want to save, you must want to but you cannot
just want it, you have to pay for it and in the future how we
pay for it needs to be more seriously addressed. Why is that?
During the last nine years, that is where we go. Is that infill?
Seventeen acres and a horse for Johnny. Thank you very much.
COMMENTS: SHARON BRONSON:
If you have any questions for Mr. Taylor, I will entertain them now. I told he you he would be entertaining. I would like to put Mr. Taylor on the Board of Supervisors agenda for August 3, 1999, when we formally adopt the budget. Here are a couple statistics for you. Pima County has the highest property tax rate of all 15 counties in Arizona, that's the bad news. The good news though is that of the 15 counties we are tenth, we are at the bottom one-third in what we tax total per capita. So the taxes you pay as individuals are less than they are in nine other counties so that is the good news since taxes are never good news.
Okay, let us talk a little bit more about the economy and I am really pleased now to be introducing Marshall Vest. He is the forecasting project director of the University of Arizona's College of Business and Public Administration. He is a contributor to the Blue Chip newsletter focusing on Arizona's economy. He is an authority on Arizona's economy, he consults with Arizona's largest companies and his forecasts are one of the most Business Economists (NABE) and is past president of the Arizona Chapter. He has taught courses in environmental management, economic forecasting and is a consultant in the fields of urban planning and economic development. As we deal with the economics of the Sonoran Desert Conservation Plan, here is somebody whose information will be very informative.
PIMA COUNTY'S ECONOMY: MARSHALL
VEST
It is my pleasure to be here this morning. Driving out here this morning was really remarkable, I think I have spent every free night coming out here and it is more extraordinary. As I came over the Gates Pass area, I could see all the way across the valley all the way to Kitt Peak.
Now, I brought along a laptop and we had a few technical problems this morning so I am not going to be able to stand here, I am going to have to stand back where the machine is and talk as we go through the slides.
Along the way, I am going to ask some questions. I am going to talk a little bit about how Tucson has grown and industries that are here. I ask the question: How is Tucson is likely to fare as we move into the new millennium? I will talk just a little bit about Tucson's economy so that is where I would like to begin. How many of you saw Ken Burn's series on PBS about three years ago called "The West." It was a wonderful series that told the story of how the west was settled and the recurring theme is that the west is a land of possibilities. The place where men made a stand and the story that they told went all the way back to the early 1800's in the time of the mountain men, trekking out to the Rocky Mountains. Wave after wave of migrants came into this part of the country, again, to the land of possibilities.
Slide: Arizona is Consistently One of the Fastest Growing States
(Population)
Period Rank Top 5 States
1900 - 95 2 NV, AZ, FL, CA, WA
1900 - 10 7 WA, OK, ID, NV, ND
1910 - 20 1 AZ, CA, MT, WY, DC
1920 - 30 4 CA, FL, MI, AZ, NJ
1930 - 40 7 DC, FL, NM , NV, CA
1940 - 50 2 CA, AZ, FL, NV, OR
1950 - 60 4 FL, NV, AK, AZ, CA
1960 - 70 3 NV, FL, AZ, AK, CA
1970 - 80 2 NV, AZ, FL, WY, UT
1980 - 90 3 NV, AK, AZ, FL, CA
1990 - 95 3 NV, ID, AZ, CO, UT
Arizona has consistently been one of the fastest growing states in the nation as far as population. Over the first 95 years and of this decade, Arizona ranks as the second fastest growing state which includes Nevada, Arizona, Florida, California and the State of Washington. Admittedly, there were not very many people back here at the turn of the century about 1900. There was something on the order of 130,000 people. What is surprising is that if you look at any decade in this century you will find that Arizona is consistently ranked among the top five with the exception of a couple of decades. The first exception is the 1900 to 1910, Arizona was ranked number 7, and the next decade where they were ranked number 7 was the decade between 1930 and 1940. As we get down to the first five years of this decade, Arizona was ranked third after Nevada and Idaho followed by Colorado and Utah.
Well there can be no question that Arizona is a growth state. By the way, what is the state bird in Arizona?
Answer: Cactus Wren.
I thought it was the "construction crane." Snowbirds is another bird that could qualify as a state bird but what a state it is!
It's time for a quiz here? I know it is Saturday morning and everything but let's do this, this is your chance for a little audience participation and everybody has a chance to vote here.
Q.How many metropolitan areas does Arizona have?
Let's have by a show of hands, how many would say two? We have
three hands.
How about three metropolitan areas? Four hands.
How about four? Even more.
Five metropolitan areas?
How about six?
Seven or more metropolitan areas?
Well let's take a look at the map. When I moved here, there were only two metropolitan areas which were Maricopa County for the Phoenix area and Pima County which is the Tucson Metro area. Just a few years ago, Pinal County was lumped in with Maricopa to redefine the Metro Phoenix area, they even gave it a new name. It is called Phoenix-Mesa Metropolitan area and they did that because of the commuting patterns there on the eastward bound freeway of the Phoenix Metro area. Just a couple of years ago, Yuma became a metropolitan area. More recently, Flagstaff in Coconino County along with Kanab County in Utah, and I am still trying to figure out what Kanab County, Utah, is doing in that designation. So we have the Flagstaff Metro area and then, somebody thought that Mohave County should be lumped in along with Clark County, Nevada, which is the Las Vegas Metropolitan area. Take a good look at the map which has 15 counties and out of these 15 counties, six of them are now officially designated as being a metropolitan area. Those of you who voted for five, you get an "A." You do not want to think about this too hard, the entire stretch of the Grand Canyon National Park is entirely designated as a metropolitan area. People who do this, by the way, are back in Washington D.C.
Slide: ARIZONA FACTOIDS
Arizona is one of the most highly urbanized states in the nation
87.5% of population lives in an urban area
Arizona ranks 5th, behind CA, NJ, HI, NV
David touched on this that Arizona is one of the most highly urbanized states in the nation at 87.5% of the population as of 1990 lives in an urban area. Arizona is ranked 5th behind California, New Jersey, Hawaii and Nevada.
Slide: ARIZONA FACTOIDS
Arizona is 21st largest state
now larger than Colorado
4.8 million versus 4.0 million people
Arizona has 2
(about 1.7 million each)
Today Arizona is the 21st largest state and as of 1990, Arizona surpassed Colorado by about 4.8 million, almost five million people here in Arizona today versus right at four million in the State of Colorado. Arizona has about two and a half times the number of people as New Mexico or Nevada and each of those states has about 1.7 million people.
Slide: 25-Year Projections - Tucson
1995 2000 2020
Population (000) 758 849 1,225
Nonag Jobs (000) 303 351 587
Personal Inc.($bil) 14.8 20.9 72.4
Retail Sales ($bil) 6.3 8.2 24.0
Well here are the projections. These are figures and models that I have used over the years to help me forecast where things are going. So our most recent forecast and one you can read about in Arizona's Economy is that the Tucson Metro area and Pima County, the population is going to grow from right at 848,000 or 850,000 today to almost one and a quarter million people by the year 2020. You notice that jobs are almost going to double between 1995 through the year 2020 and we will get nearly one-half of the population and then you see some tremendous increases in personal income as you go towards 2020.
Slide: OUTLOOK SUMMARY METRO AREAS
PHX TUS
Population gain by 2004 (000s) 435 91
Per year
New housing units per yr (000s) 34.5 7.5
Year 2020 population (mil) 5.04 1.22
David and I change numbers every now and then. Back in 1960, the total population ratio in Tucson was about 25% and the projection is that we have here in the year 2020, we will have right at one-half in Tucson. The Metro Phoenix has a higher ratio and they will probably be up around 35%. Statewide, the numbers for the Nonag jobs were very good but the County numbers. (Inaudible from this point)
Q:What kind of jobs are we going to have?
A:I will try to answer that question as we go along.
Q:Why are the retail sales growing along with the population?
A:Retail sales is one billion dollars. As we move forward retail
sales is going to comprise less of our purchasing and we will
be purchasing more and more services.
Let me talk about the Metro areas and compare Phoenix and Tucson. There will be a population gain by the year 2004 and that is just five years from now. We are going to see an increase in the Tucson area at 90,000 or so and over a decade we will add almost 200,000. During the decade of the 1990's the population is going to grow by 200,000 people. During the past five years Tucson has added a city about one and a half times the size of Flagstaff, about one and a half times the size of Yuma and about two and a half times the size of Sierra Vista. The amazing thing is that over that same period time, the Metro Phoenix area has added a city the size of the City of Tucson, just five years ago. You will also notice the number of new housing units per year on average over the next five years, we are going to have to build somewhere between 7,000 and 8,000 housing units. That does not include the trailers, mobile homes or manufactured homes. The manufactured home shipments are consistently 2,000-3,000 units per year.
Slide: The Phoenix "Citistate"
Def:A regional economy with a major city at its center
Metro Phoenix is a "mega city"
3 million population
THE city of the southwest
Commercial and financial center
We need to talk a little bit about how Tucson fits into the region and I hear some nervous laughter in here. Phoenix really is what might be called a "Citistate." The definition of a "Citistate" is that it is a regional economy with a major city at its center. The Phoenix Metro area has about 3 million people today and it is clearly THE city of the southwest. It is the commercial and financial center, it has the most highly diversified areas of any metro area. It has 7th busiest airport in the nation at Sky Harbor, it is now the regional office of Charles Schwab and it is the back office operations center for credit card processing, data processing center, they Mayo Clinic is located there. It is the headquarters for many national corporations, home of major businesses like Motorola, Intel, Allied Signal, Honeywell, American Express, Boeing, TRW, Microchip Technology, Insight Computers, America West or Southwest Airlines and there are many other major companies located there. For pro sports fans, there is football, basketball, baseball and ice hockey.
Slide: The Phoenix "Citistate"
Serves entire state of Georgia and more
Savannah is its port city
Tucson, Flagstaff, Yuma, Sierra Vista are all satellites of
Phoenix
So you can think of Phoenix in a manner similar to that of Atlanta.
Now Atlanta serves the entire State of Georgia and more and Savannah
is its port city. Phoenix really is the center of the southwest.
Tucson, Flagstaff, Yuma, Sierra Vista are all satellites of the
Phoenix area. Those financial decisions now made in Phoenix. Many
flights that originate in Tucson have to go to Phoenix and for
the past few years, Tucson has seen its political power in the
State Legislature slowly but surely diminish. Now why is this
important to Tucson?
Slide: Phoenix is the Engine for Growth for this Region
Low air freight costs
Large skilled labor force
Strong ties to higher education
Adequate water supplies
Lower property taxes
Leadership to solve problems
Better connections to Internet - high band width
There are many advantages for locating in Phoenix. There are lower air freight costs, large skilled labor force, strong ties to higher education, adequate water supplies, there is no question about the water in that area. It has a much lower property tax and it appears to have leadership both in the public and private sector and finally, it has much better connections to the Internet due to its high band width. I still cannot get DSL at my house. Phoenix today is one of the best connected large Internet cities. It also has satellite.
Implications of Membership in the Phoenix Citistate
We need to recognize the indivisibility of the Citistate
Understand where the region is headed
Identify how Tucson fits into the whole
Accept the limitations on what Tucson can become
We like to think we are in control of our own destiny and we sure do not want to be left out but we need to realize that we are far from being a citistate and that does place some limitations on what Tucson can become.
Now the question is: Is Arizona getting better or are we just getting bigger?
Dave mentioned that two years ago the center of the budget policy priorities were crime which were very sobering statistics about what this state stands for.
Slide: THE POOR ARE GETTING POORER
Arizona has the 4th-widest gap Income Gap
Arizona has fastest Income Gap
Real incomes are declining for 80% of families with children
Arizona has the fourth widest income gap in the country and the gap is growing wider and faster than any other state. If you look at the data behind this, you will see the real incomes are declining to about 80% of the steady population, the steady population is families with children.
Pie Chart Slide:
Again, if you take the income history by Quintiles and you compare that distribution from the mid-80's and the mid-90's, being careful, of course, to adjust for inflation you find then that real income, inflation adjusted income has declined for the bottom one-fifth, you find by 37% here in Arizona and that is the largest decline of any state in the country. You see it also decline next to the bottom and the middle and the next to the top. It is not until you get the top one-fifth of income distribution do you see any gain and then it is minuscule 3%, one of the smallest increases of any state.
Q:What is the income of the top one-fifth and the bottom one-fifth?
A:Okay, take the income distribution of families with children
and just divide it up into five pieces.
I don't think I have the numbers with me that delineates where the breaks are and it is not in the report of Arizona's Economy which was recently published. It is the number of families in the bottom one-fifth of the income distribution and the cutoff , of course we have to adjust for inflation, I am thinking that break between the top and bottom is somewhere in the range of $15,000.00 but again, I do not know what you are using to inflate these numbers with, where that index is that really changes how high that is. That is a good question, I am sorry I did not have a good answer or the numbers with me. Hopefully the families that are on the bottom one-fifth in the mid-80's have moved up and have bettered themselves. The implication is, whoever those people, those people have less purchasing power today than what they had a decade ago.
Okay, so we have this crusty old character. As Dave mentioned, we have been fighting the war on poverty here for so long that some of the oldtimer's now are starting to win. It is a little known fact that I once worked for the City of Tucson when Mayor Murphy was in office. He said, "I understand you have been fighting the war on poverty." I said, "That is right." He asked, "How come I am still poor?" I said, "Well, you lost." He then asked, "Are you taking any prisoners?"
The real question here is: Why is poverty rate so high? There was an article in last week's Wall Street Journal that talks about why some part of the country are chronically poor. Well, are we all going to wind up on the street corner in this fashion trying to support our retirement? Hopefully not and as long as we make good decisions and continue to grow the economy, we may be able to address some of these issues.
Slide: HOW DOES CORPORATE AMERICA VIEW TUCSON?
Tourism, Mining,Aviation & missiles (aerospace)
Astronomy & optics
If you look at the economic table all around the country, this is what I understand from them. Corporate America views Tucson for tourism and mining. They also think of Tucson is also an area that is known for aviation and missiles, aerospace like Allied Signal and Raytheon. They also think of Tucson for its astronomy and optics like Kitt Peak Observatory, Mt. Graham Observatory and of course in the past decade or so, Tucson has been dubbed the "Tucson Optics Valley."
Slide: TUCSON'S STRATEGIC VISION
The gateway to Latin America
Strong cultural ties to Mexico
Located on I-10, with Texas to East and California to West
Deep sea port of Guaymas
Need a multi-modal facility
Rail, trucking air
Transportation improvements
Optics Valley?
Our strategic vision: Are we the gateway to Latin America? Are we the port to areas in the south? We have strong cultural ties, we are located on I-10 with Texas to the east and California to the west and the possibility of a deep sea port developed in Guaymas. We do have a need for a multi-modal facility here that would handle rail, trucking and air and we will need to improve all of our transportation systems. And of course, the Optics Valley.
Slide: EXPORT-BASED INDUSTRIES
We need to define what we mean by export-based industries. This
is really a part of the growth of the economy. We need to grow
our export base to industries that produces and sells goods to
markets outside of the local economy. In return, money flows into
the economy and recirculates thereby producing a "multiplier"
effect, everybody wins.
Slide: TUCSON'S LEADING EXPORT-BASED INDUSTRIES
High Technology
University of Arizona
Military installations
Davis Monthan Air Force Base and Air National Guard
Copper mining
Teleservices and telemarketing are activities that have located in the community here recently and they also are part of the export base. In fact, growth in telemarketing has probably done more to raise the minimum wage than anything. What is Tucson's leading export based industries? First and foremost are tourists, high technology. Let me give you some information on tourism. In 1996, 2.5 million visitors came to the Old Pueblo and 1.5 million dollars was spent creating close to 36,500 jobs. You can see all the multiplier effects, you see that tourism accounts for about 12% of the local economy. High technology, again about 12% and we are talking now about electronics, computers, aircraft missiles, software, the University of Arizona with the research they are conducting. The military creates about 8,000 jobs at Davis Monthan, the Air National Guard. It is just an aside that Arizona has Luke Marina Air Corp Station, Fort Huachuca, Gila Bend Auxiliary Air Field, Western Army Aviation Training Facility and of course, the Barry Goldwater Gunnery Range. If the Barry Goldwater Gunnery Range did not exist, there would be no reason to have any of those military installations present with the exception of Fort Huachuca. And then finally, the copper mining industry is no longer paying a portion that drives the economy.
Q:What are the wages paid by the military?
A:The wages involved are much less.
The effect is equal with the military installations because there are those who spend their money to have their hair done, at the local Circle K and other business establishments located near the military installations.
Slide: TUCSON'S INDUSTRY CLUSTERS
Aerospace
Optics
Environmental Technologies
BioIndustry
Software
Teleservices
Plastics
If we look at Tucson's industry clusters, these are the industries that are economic developers and they are trying to support the local recruitment and retention.
Q:Inaudible
Slide: MILKEN INSTITUTE TECH-POLES
Western Region
http://milken-inst.org/mod30/summary.html
Rank City # Rank City #
1 San Jose, CA 10 19 Denver, CO 3
3 LA-Long Beach 5 22 San Francisco, CA 5
5 Seattle-Bell.-Ever. 6 24 Boice City, ID 2
7 Albuquerque, NM 3 26 Portland-Vancouver 2
12 Phoenix-Mesa, AZ 1 27 Boulder-Longmont 9
13 Orange County, CA 10 37 Sacramento, CA 6
14 Oakland, CA 8 40 Tucson, AZ 5
17 San Diego, CA 9 42 Colorado Springs, CO 9# is the number of industries with concentration (LQs>1)
Two studies came out just within the past week and these are fairly new so I hope the Internet address shows clearly. I placed the Internet address on the screen so if anyone wishes to download these new studies. I think they are very good from an economical development standpoint in asking questions of high technology: How are we doing? This study from the Milken Institute rates the cities according to an index they developed for high technology and I have just shown the cities in the western region here so we skip over to San Jose, Los Angles, Long Beach and so forth. San Jose has 10 different industries where they have a concentration of some of these that they are output and location situations if you will. The location quotient is greater than 1 if you have a concentration of industries above the nationwide average. So San Jose is 10, Phoenix is in the 12th spot, interestingly with only one industry. And then we have Tucson at 40 and #5, tech-poles is the study we are referring to. I am going to finish here in about three minutes or so, I am almost to the end.
Slide: STATE "NEW ECONOMY INDEX"
Progressive Policy Institute
http://207.158.143/states/summary.html
OVERALL RANK
California 2
Colorado 3
Washington 4
Utah 6
Arizona 10
Oregon 15
New Mexico 19
Nevada 21
Idaho 23
Wyoming 41
Montana 46
A second policy of Progressive Policy Institute has a different address for you to look at, they have created a new economy index which is intended to capture how well states are geared up to the new economy in the information age. California ranks number 2, to Colorado, Washington, Utah and Arizona in there in the 10th spot. Again, this is just western states.
Slide: STATE "NEW ECONOMY INDEX," AZ
Progressive Policy Institute
http://207.158.225.143/states/summary.html
RANK
Overall ranking 10
"Gazelle Jobs" 3
Commercial Internet Domains 4
Job Churning 5
Export Focus in Manuf. 9
Educated Workforce 12
High Tech Jobs 12
Venture Capital 13
Digital Government 13
Online Population 14
Patents 16
Now for Arizona, this chart gives you an idea of some of the measures they use for attaining the overall ranking of number 10. They had this index for "Gazelle Jobs," that is the percentage of firms that have growth rates in excess of 20% over a four year period, it is random growth which is the idea here. Arizona ranks number 4 as far as far as Commercial Internet Domains and I am surprised at that ranking. Job churning, this is the birth and death of companies of which Arizona ranks 5th. We also have export focus in manufacturing where we export a lot of more than we produce. The educated workforce ranked number 12, an issue that David was talking about where we have low rankings as far as educational attainment and considering the dropout rate, I was surprised to see educated workforce as high as number 12. High tech jobs, venture capital, digital government, the authors think we are well on our way to transforming our government, the governmental agencies are getting into the information age. Online population, we are ranked number 14 and the number of patents, we are ranked number 16 so there are some recommendations that have come out of these studies.
ACTION ITEMS
Recognize the indivisibility of the citistate
Make governance work
Solve the water issues now
Social depravation and workforce preparedness
Make education and workforce training our number one priority
Implement strategic plan for ED
Here is a direct quote:
Slide: IN THE NEW ECONOMY
We get the learning networks, that is what these industry clusters
are all about, us bringing together the companies and those industries
so that they can network and learn from one another.
Slide: POLICY PRESCRIPTIONS FOR THE "NEW ECONOMY"
Co-invest in the skills of the network
Co-invest in an infrastructure for innovation
Promote innovation-oriented and customer-oriented government
Foster the transformation to a digital economy
Foster civic collaboration
As for policy prescriptions, I thought these were interesting. Policy prescriptions for the new economy. We have to invest in the skills of the workforce, we already know that because we do not do a very good job yet but we will though. Invest in infrastructure for innovation, technology transfer those kinds of things. We need to promote innovation-oriented and customer-oriented government, foster the transformation to a digital economy and get U.S. West Communications and others to invest some of their money locally. Finally, foster civic collaboration. I will leave you with this cartoon, Toles is one of my favorite cartoonists and here Toles is telling us that an economist is trying to follow the flight of the butterfly and the butterfly is not able to come down. What you might not be able to read is the subtitle down there. It says, "Better stick to color commentary." So just to wrap up, I think Tucson does have a future that is clear that Tucson is going to grow but there is the question of, what will it look like when we get there. I am optomistic that we will make the right decisions and continue to make Tucson a little place and continue to develop the economy that the food will be right there amongst the more prosperous metropolitan areas in this new digital economy. Thanks a bunch.
Q:Do we need a sales tax?
A:I will give you an economic development answer: From an economic development perspective, our sales tax, what is important is not to have a particular tax that sticks out when compared to other areas, other cities that you are competing with. A sales tax as presently in Tucson is lower than the Metropolitan Phoenix area so a quarter percent sales tax does not burden our ability to recruit new companies to this area. The property tax on the other hand is already very high and does definitely harm the ability to lure companies into town.
Q:What do we know about attracting businesses into Tucson?
A:Attractiveness is becoming more and more important as we move into this digital age. Geographic boundaries are disappearing and it does not really matter what part of the country you are in anymore. You are going to be close to raw materials, you do not have to have the lowest property tax rate but you have to have an environment where science and the engineers like to live. Tucson can get better connected to the outside world and develop that high tech look. The environment is one of the things along with education which I believe is the key. We have got to be better at education.
Thanks a lot.
COMMENTS: SHARON BRONSON
Again, I want to add a few more statistics for you. As we looked at what our leading industries were here in Southern Arizona, you are going to know that Davis Monthan was up there, the military, the University of Arizona, government and the reality is and one of the reasons your property taxes are so high is that much of what drives our economy and where the jobs are, are in fact, institutions that do not contribute to the property tax base. That is one of the reasons we are so uncompetitive and so $1.64 or $1.65 of the combined rate whereas some are now $5.25. One of those reasons is that we do not have that high assessed valuation. Phoenix has over three times the population and five times the assessed valuation. We have 328,000 people in unincorporated Pima County and in incorporated Maricopa County, we are one-half that at 160,000 plus people and the way we fund government, the way we fund cities and they get more revenues than counties. Counties have two sources of revenue generators and one is a sales tax which Pima County does not have and the other is property tax, we get less in shared revenues when we get our Highway Revenue Funds. We do not get any at all from income tax because the city is getting income tax distribution from the State of Arizona so as we look to how we are going to develop the Sonoran Desert Conservation Plan and how we are going to fund it, I think those are important facts that you have. You might want to thank whoever mentioned the fact that well over 41% of our economy is coming from where we generate the money. We are going to take about a ten minute break now and then come back to Mr. McNulty and Pima County's Principal Planner, Mr. Frank Behlau.
RECESS: 10:50 a.m.
RECONVENE: 11:00 a.m.
INTRODUCTION: SHARON BRONSON
Let me introduce to you now, Mr. Michael McNulty. He is going to talk to you about water. Water as we talk in terms of growth, habitat protection and it is probably the limiting natural resource in this valley and region. Michael is a partner in the law firm of Brown & Bain, he concentrates in the field of water law, natural resources, land use regulation and high technology. He graduated from Yale University and the University of Arizona College of Law. He is on the board of directors at Greenfield Country Day School, he is on the board of directors at Sam Hughes Neighborhood Association, is the general counsel to Native Seeds Search and he is on the board of directors of the Planetary Coral Reef Foundation. Please welcome Michael McNulty.
PIMA COUNTY'S WATER: MICHAEL MCNULTY
There are soldiers who are going through Pristina looking for land mines and I kind of have the feeling I am going to go through that a little bit this morning. Water can be contentious. I will do my best to stick to the facts and nothing but the facts. About one month ago, President Likens at the University of Arizona presented a three steps back analysis picture involving water in Southern Arizona. What I did was to go to the University of Arizona's website and download those charts and copied them to overheads.
We will start out with my most difficult to read slide. The earlier statistics had to start with a description of what the geographical area was for which statitistics were collected. Most of you know what a watershed is, there is both surface watersheds and groundwater sheds. When the State of Arizona decided to manage the groundwater supply they began by defining groundwater sheds.
This is the Tucson Active Management Area (TAMA) which is a groundwater shed and as you can see Interstate 10 running through the middle of it. It goes down to the Mexican border through Avra Valley and this also happens to include the land that is irrigated in this watershed being FICO down by Green Valley in the Cortaro/Marana Irrigation District and the Avra Valley Irrigation District.
This is a long term chart for the amount of groundwater that has been pumped in this area. The unit of measurement when discussing water is acre feet. An acre foot, if you can picture it, is an acre covered by 12 inches of water, it is 325,000 gallons.
Here you see hundreds of thousands of acre feet that can be pumped for a year or so. The peak around 1975 was when the high point of agriculture was present and it was about that time that the City of Tucson headed by Mr. Brooks, began an intensive program to purchase the entire water system. The current company is about 300,000 acre feet and most of these numbers incidentally are published by the University of Arizona and came from the State Department of Water Resources. Kathy Jacobs from the Tucson AMA is here to step on my toes if I say anything wrong.
The division of total water use among the interests, municipal is the most agricultural, copper mining and down here is golf courses and other uses. Most people have a vision of farming using the most water in Arizona. It is true on a state made basis, it has been ten years since that has been true here.
On the left you see the water demand, the water used, you see agriculture up around 130,000 acre feet. Municipal uses are almost 170,000 acre feet, golf and copper mining pushing it almost all the way up to 350,000 acre feet and not all of that comes from groundwater. The way these are stacked it starts with the water that comes from the Central Arizona Project (CAP). The amount of water available from the CAP is much larger than groundwater. The treatment plant and so forth, we have not yet been able to put that water to use.
The CAP Water that is counted, part of that is recharged and part of it is indirect recharge from CAP that is given to the farmers for credits. The next part is affluent and incidental recharge and of course, it comes out of the Roger Road and Ina Road Treatment Plants. Much of that recharge is natural, in fact, about one-half of the water that comes through the various municipal water systems returns as effluent. Between 75-90% of that returns and then there is about 60,000 acre feet of water that naturally percolates into the ground via the rains. The remainder is a deficit. It is how much more water you have taken out of the aquifer that the aquifer can naturally support.
This brings us to what I think Chuck wants me to talk about which
is how you reach sustainability. Sustainability was drafted into
the groundwater proposal in 1980 and it required all of the Active
Management Areas of Arizona to achieve a safe deal within 45 years
after balance of plan. That is what Tucson is focused on trying
to achieve.
This is a little tough to read, the coloration does not really mean anything. It is simply the gradations of groundwater table in feet above sea level. You are more familiar with water experts when you are talking about the elevation of the groundwater table above sea level. The flow as you see goes towards the north, there is saturated aquifers in Avra Valley in the central basin here, the Catalina's and the Rincon. As you see out here, there is almost no groundwater and there is the community of Santa Rita, I believe it is called, it is part of the County programs as you head south.
This shows the total number of irrigated acres. And you see in the mid-1970's where it started to drop off as the City of Tucson is beginning to purchase the groundwater. Quickly, this is the three areas in which there is a lot of farming, a number of acres and how much water they use. An acre foot of water can support about five or six people with various uses so as you see, the irrigation district uses 33,000 acre feet of water.
These are the major water utilities and obviously, Tucson Water is the largest. Metro Water District is second, Oro Valley purchased groundwater from within their city limits quite well. Flowing Wells and Oro Valley Irrigation Districts does not have any irrigation use coming from their wells.
Q:Is Marana a water district:
A:They are but I do not think they are big enough to be on this chart. These are the top eight or so and they are growing quickly, it is still pretty small.
These dots are over the wells and the encircled area is where the City of Tucson's principal well fields are, the Central Wellfield. The proportion of water used by homes is 62% from the Central Wellfield, 18% from Avra Valley, 9% from Santa Cruz near Green Valley, 2% from the southside. Seven and a half percent from the Tucson Airport Remediation Program which formerly polluted waters from this strip of land and then once it is clean, put it through the City's stormwater.
This shows the differences in a home with conservation and I have put it up here particularly so that you can learn how many gallons per capita, per day for shower water uses with conservation versus without conservation, but rather to give you some insight as to the detail, to try to help you understand and try to figure out some way to bring it down and add a little balance. Conservation is a very big component of groundwater uses. As far as the industrial water uses, mining is about 70% and of course, that has to go higher. Sand and Gravel uses between 10-12%, golf courses 13%".
This shows how much of the watersheds water use is used by industry which is about 20%.
What is shows is for the smaller water users, the cost of the
average monthly bill is less today than it was 35 years ago. For
slightly larger water users, it is less today than it was 20 years
ago. Economists who make argument that you have to adjust your
behavior is premature.
You can see how much of the water is supplied by groundwater versus how much is supplied by effluent. Most of the golf courses that were existing when the groundwater law was passed were allowed to keep pumping groundwater. It is difficult to get them off of groundwater and onto effluent because of the cost of effluent and the City of Tucson tends to be quite a bit higher. The effluent use is growing, the City of Tucson is prohibiting any new golf courses using groundwater in their jurisdiction. Pima County has made aggressive moves in the same direction.
We saw earlier that the average population growth in Pima County is about 23,000 people and what you find when you divide the total number of people by the total number of golf courses, this gives the kind of golf course you will have in 24 years. So what you can perceive is that there is going to be one new golf course about every year. There will be 36 golf courses locally.
The concern about continued groundwater pumping is concern for subsidence because you can pull water from underneath in the aquifer and as the aquifer settle, what the USGS has predicted is that you can see subsidence of up to 10 feet. That is relatively modest compared to the situation in Casa Grande. Let's look at aerial photo's from satellites and around this entire perimeter of the valley, you can see cracks where the valley has separated from the bedrock that surrounds it. It is closer to sea level today than it was 30 years ago but it has settled relatively uniform, there is no differential in some areas, in some places the valley curves and all of a sudden the sewer lines are trying to flow uphill. You can see diverse subsidence predicted for the surrounding area.
The effort to balance supply and demand has put (?) upon the potential for recharging the aquifer. There is a (?) at Avra Valley, it was the first one that was permitted, the city built this Avra Valley storage project. It is hoped to recharge somewhere between sixty and ninety thousand feet per year which would be a huge addition. This one in the middle is the Sweetwater Basin where the City of Tucson takes it out and runs it through a filter and puts it into the reclaimed system in order to irrigate golf course.
The groundwater code had a very unique way to meet the assured water supply requirements. Before you can subdivide property you have to show that there is adequate water supply for 100 years. It is a struggle to know what is going to happen over a century. The Department of Water Resources has been trying to do is push people onto lower resources and this may accomplish with CAP.
When you see the difference between how much water we need
and how much we have to have. Tucson Water has taken the position
that they will do whatever it takes to provide for growth. They
are trying to acquire sufficient water resources in order to meet
growth demands, still the amount of CAP Water available to them
is about 136,000 feet.
Thank you very much.
COMMENT AND INTRODUCTION: SHARON BRONSON
Your questions were kind of directed to how much groundwater has affected the economy. You are here because of the Sonoran Desert Conservation Plan and the other part of that equation is that same water is needed for wildlife habitat and so, as you struggle with how we provide that habitat, water is going to be part of that equation so the water you take for that takes away water we have for growth. This brings us to our final speaker.
Frank is someone I have known for a number of years, both since I have been elected and prior to that. I have worked with Frank and hassled him in many ways. Frank is the Principal Planner with the Development Services Department/Planning Division of Pima County. He was the point person for the County in the Rocking K Specific Plan and we have spent many hours together as the result of that. Frank has quite a background in Planning. He has a B.S. in architecture, he has a M.S. in Urban Planning with specialization in neighborhood conservation from the University of Arizona. He is a member of the American Institute of Certified Planners and serves on the board of the Southern Arizona section of the Arizona Planning Association. So with that, he actually is the person the Board of Supervisors rely on very much.
PIMA COUNTY'S LAND: FRANK BEHLAU
First of all, I would like to thank Maeveen for the invitation.
There are some things that I do want to bring across in this presentation
and one is that, we need to learn from the past to live in the
future.
Slide: CREDITS
Paul Matty, Pima County, Public Works Librarian
Andy Gunning, PAG
As of yesterday afternoon, Jim was still shooting some photographs.
Slide: The View from 1960
Quotable Quotes from GLUP
These are quotations from 1960 from GLUP. I think the first point
is the incentive one, is the fact that the urban area is continually
changing. One of the spooky things about GLUP was that it envisioned
1,400,000 people by next year and that was the lowest.
There were some misses obviously but there were also some hits in this prognosis. One is that without careful planning traffic conditions will be nothing short of chaotic in the urban area. Essential values such as greenbelts and parks are extremely important to this community which are not acknowledged by biological value and that is what we are her
Slide: Photo A: Tucson Then
This is stolen from Tucson Then and Now book a few years ago. This is looking east with Speedway is toward the left hand side of the slide and Campbell Avenue is right near the bottom.
Slide: Photo B: Tucson Now
This is a view in 1995 and clearly there has been a lot of change.
Slide: DETERMINING THE URBAN FORM
FORM MAKERS OF EPC
Natural Form Makers (Topography)
Transportation Form Makers (Corridors)
Governmental Form Makers (Trust Lands and Public Preserves)
What creates the urban form? I am not a geographer or cartographer but as a planner, we still have to look at basic elements. I have identified three including topography which references mountains. The second form is the transportation form with corridors and finally, we have what I call Governmental.
Slide: Natural Form Makers
TOPOGRAPHY
Mountains
Rivers
These are two key form makers from the topography maps.
Slide: Photo: 1960 3-D Model
This is a view of Tucson in 1960 and this will provide a good view of form.
Slide: GIS Map: Topo and Rivers
The light green areas are Metro Tucson.
Slide: Transportation Corridors
Railroads
Highways
The Transportation Corridors use the paths of least resistance. As you can see in this view they followed the rivers or cow paths that was less than 2.5%. The two most common in America are railroads and highways.
Slide: GIS map: RRs and Highways
This slide shows the railroad systems and then the black lines are the state highway systems. They generally followed riverbeds.
Slide: Photo: 1968 Freeway Plan
This then is sometimes the path of normal resistance than others. This is the late 1960s freeway plan. This is a nice artifact.
Slide: Governmental Form Makers
TRUST LANDS AND PUBLIC PRESERVES
Territorial (State) Trust Lands
Indian Trust Lands
Public Preserves
The third element is what I call Governmental Form Makers and these are the Trust Lands and Public Preserves. The State Trust Lands are significant in this community. They were initially territorial lands deeded at the time of establishment of the Arizona Territory. There were also Indian Trust Lands and finally Public Preserves.
NOTE;This portion had slides containing GIS Maps before 1900;
1900 - 1929; 1930 - 1959; 1960 - 1989.
Slides indicate changes through the decades. There is very little
State Land left in the Tucson Metro area.
Slide: Putting Pima County into Perspective
Population
Land area
Ownership
Jurisdictions
Slide: Population Growth 1940 - 1998
POPULATION IN PERSPECTIVE
This is the population perspective from 1940 to 1998. It is a graph that compares the County from Metro Tucson. What I found most interesting was that it shows starting in 1960, how Phoenix became more and more the predominant player in population growth in Arizona. The urban area is changing from agricultural to urban.
NOTE:This portion contained charts to show Population Growth for
the periods between 1940 - 1998; Percentage by Decade and Population
by County which included a pie chart showing Maricopa County and
Pima County's population.
There is a dramatic drop into the 1960s and a relative drop in growth through the 1960s and then a resurgance in the 1980s that we all recognize is continuing to this day. The United States has been growing at a relative 10% increase it appears at least in the 30 years since the Baby Boom.
Slide: Land Area In Perspective
PUTTING PIMA COUNTY INTO PERSPECTIVE
Pima County is nine times the size of Rhode Island
Pima County covers 4,472 football fields to a depth of one foot.
Pima County is nine times the size of Rhode Island which makes it 18 times as big as the largest iceberg.
Slide: Land Ownership In Perspective
PUTTING PIMA COUNTY INTO PERSPECTIVE
Land Ownership in Arizona
Land Ownership in EPC
Land Areas By Jurisdiction
Population By Jurisdiction
Land Use (1960,1997)
NOTE: Next three slides showed Land Ownership, EPC Land Areas
By Jurisdiction and EPC Population By Jurisdiction.
This shows Arizona as a whole on the left hand bar that three-quarters is almost 80% of Arizona is in Public or Indian Trust. On the right you can see eastern Pima County and this is really the area east of the Tohono O'Odham Indian Reservation at roughly 3,000+ square miles. You can see that it is roughly thirds, quite a bit different from the rest of the state.
We had some rough numbers that showed roughly about 40% of it was developed. I am not positive about these numbers, they were out of a database that I did not really trust.
Pima County by area by area is Pac Man and everything else is just slices of the pie. The presentations graphic here unfortunately turned a whole bunch of areas into the same color but the big slice of green is the City of Tucson and then you have these other little jurisdictions by land area.
The City of Tucson is the predominant population in Pima County while unincorporated Pima County is a very large piece of this wheel, it has roughly a quarter million people when you exclude all the incorporated areas. Casas Adobes has 60,000 people and is a third man player as far as population.
Slide: EPC PLANNING BEFORE 1960
Arizona Planning and Zoning Legislation
Early Planning and Zoning
Goodrich Report for Tucson (1932)
TRP Segoe Plan (early 1940s)
Pima County Planning and Zoning
How did we get here? Simply there have been various legislative changes that have occurred through the years, these are topics.
NOTE: Next four slides featured Then and Now photos.
This shows Oracle Road, roughly north of the Rillito River in 1946, once again, taken from Tucson Then and Now.
This shows 1995 and clearly you can see the changes.
Slide: Arizona Planning and Zoning Legislation
EPC PLANNING BEFORE 1960
1925: Enabling Legislation for Cities
1949: Enabling Legislation for Counties
Arizona, surprisingly enough, was very progressive when it came to Planning and Zoning Legislation. In 1924, there was a national ordinance established in which the State Legislature granted cities the authority to use planning and zoning legislation.
They were a little less quick with counties. Counties received Planning and Zoning Enabling Legislation in 1949 and that was after ten years of lobbying efforts to have the Legislature grant that.
Slide: Early Planning and Zoning
EPC PLANNING BEFORE 1960
Adoption of City Zoning
Goodrich Report for Tucson (1932)
Tucson Regional (Segoe) Plan (early 1940s)
Adoption of subdivision standards, roadway plan
These are some further topics.
Slide: Adoption of City Zoning
EARLY PLANNING AND ZONING
Original Tucson Zoning Ordinance (1930)
"Modern" Tucson Zoning Code (1944)
Major Streets and Routes Plan (1955)
Subdivision Standards (1955)
The City of Tucson, five years after the Legislature adopted the Original Zoning Ordinance in 1930, when it accumulatively reduces from the most restrictive to least restrictive kinds of classification in residential and commercial zones. It was readopted in 1944 as a "Modern" Zoning Code and the city adopted the Major Streets and Routes Plan in 1955 and in that same year, also adopted Comprehensive Subdivision Standards even though subdivisions had been occurring in the years before that.
NOTE: Next three slides showed photos.
This is a photograph from a 1929 newspaper article on the City's pending adoption of zoning. It is at this time, zoning was used for planning communities so even though you do not see the planning, it was there. I would like to thank Katherina Richter for loaning me her photograph.
Slide: 1932 Goodrich Report for Tucson
EPC PLANNING BEFORE 1960
A plan for planning metro Tucson in the 1930s
This is the 1932 Goodrich Report for Tucson. Here is one Mr. Huckelberry
may want to note, it recommended taking immediate steps to make
use of unemployed engineers, he might want to work that into the
budget next year. The report also showed that Pima County needs
a comprehensive plan and the cost of securing it would be relatively
small at about $11,500.00. We do have a call into Mr. Goodrich
but he has not returned yet.
NOTE: Next three slides were exhibits with one photo
This is the Segoe Plan from the early 1940s.
At that time, once again, this is Campbell and River. St. Phillips has come in, the church and plaza area. You can see predominantly the agricultural nature of the northern County area.
The Segoe Plan really did not have a comprehensive plan for Pima County. The best map that I could locate was a streets map.
Slide: TRP Segoe Plan
A Master Plan For
Transit
Parks and playgrounds system
Rehabilitating blighted areas and conserving neighborhood
Population of Tucson and its environs
Public and semi-public buildings
Economic base of Tucson and environs
Improving the appearance of Tucson
It did have numerous reports that dealt with everything from street widening to transit, to rehabilitating blighted areas and conserving neighborhoods.
Also included are some population studies.
EXHIBIT SLIDE
Slide: Pima County Planning and Zoning Before 1960
EARLY PLANNING AND ZONING
Adoption of County Zoning "Plan"
Adoption of Major Streets and Scenic Routes Plan
Master plan for school districts
Master plans for outlying areas
Within Pima County Planning and Zoning, Pima County adopted zoning in 1953. Also considered was the adoption of Major Streets and Scenic Routes and through the 1950s, there were Master Plans for school districts and outlying areas.
TWO PHOTO SLIDES
This is roughly 1953 at the time of zoning, you can see some development coming into the Campbell and River area.
This is the Catalina Foothills in the late 1950s and it always takes my breath away. This is an amazing view.
Slide: Pima County Master Plans
PIMA COUNTY PLANNING AND ZONING BEFORE 1960
Catalina Foothills Area
Oro Valley
Casas Adobes Area
Rincon Area
Vail and East
The County Master Plans were real significant, there were five of them which I listed here.
TWO EXHIBIT SLIDES
They basically blanketed Tucson to the north and to the east and they anticipated a tremendous amount of growth for the County.
This is actually from the mid-1960's, this is Green Valley. One of the consequences of master planning in outlying areas. There is very different landscape than what you see nowadays.
Slide: TUCSON/PIMA COUNTY GENERAL LAND USE PLAN (1960)
Tucson ...and the Year 2000
The "Rezoning Tent" by 1960
The GLUP Plan for Urban Tucson
The GLUP Plan for Eastern Pima County
This is 1960 General Land Use Plan.
AERIAL PHOTO SLIDE
This is from the early 1960s. You can see housing and the beginnings of urban development, you can see the road is finally paved at River Road west of Campbell.
Slide: "Tucson...and the Year 2000"
TUCSON/PIMA COUNTY GENERAL LAND USE PLAN (1960)
There were some pretty amazing statements in the joint City/County
Plan. They had a statistical population potential of 10 million
people in 2,000 square miles. Such growth is spectacular but certainly
not unrealistic.
Slide: The Rezoning Tent by 1960
TUCSON/PIMA COUNTY GENERAL LAND USE PLAN (1960)
Catalina Foothills
Tanque Verde Valley
Vail Area
Sahuarita
Kinney/Ajo Way
Casas Adobes/Oro Valley
Catalina
SLIDE EXHIBIT
Here you can see how really our present day Tucson in a lot of ways was determined years ago. The two large dots represent what we call zoning plans were zoning was conveyed to huge tracts of property at once. One is for the Catalina Foothills, the others much farther southeast outside of Vail. The other dots represent areas of major rezoning decisions.
Slide: The GLUP Plan for Urban Tucson
TUCSON/PIMA COUNTY GENERAL LAND USE PLAN (1960)
Guided Tucson development for next 20 years.
The City of Tucson adopted this in 1959. The plans for the city was to develop west through the Tucson Mountains and over to Avra Valley. The delineation of commercial areas should be considered as only symbolic.
EXHIBIT SLIDES
This is a map from 1960. The yellow shows residential, red shows commercial. Notice the two strip commercial areas along Speedway east/west and 6th Ave. Corridor going south so we have a relatively compact community with a couple of key commercial districts besides downtown.
This is what the plan recommended and if you ever wondered why
Tucson looks the way it does, well here is one reason why. Strip
commercial are in red. The corner of Catalina and Skyline were
in the paper just last weekend, well here is where it all started.
Slide: The Regional GLUP Plan
TUCSON/PIMA COUNTY GENERAL LAND USE PLAN (1960)
This, unfortunately was the plan of record until 1992 when it
was amended by the community and neighborhood plans.
EXHIBIT SLIDE
Everything in yellow is considered urban uses, green was urban at about one house per acre. The blue are the public preserves. Industrial areas were supposed to be placed in Vail, Ryan Field.
This roughly what Tucson looked like by the early 1970s. You can see how the Campbell/River Road area is transitioned into an urban community.
Slide: TUCSON/PIMA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN (1975)
There are a number here who were part of this, that resulted in
the Pima County Comprehensive Plan process. The City/County Comprehensive
Planning Process. The most memorable recommendations were the
one that Pima County should only be responsible for suburban ranch
zoning and that kind of planning, everything else should be zoned
by the City of Tucson. They recommended that marijuana should
be legalized. Needless to say, the plan was not only adopted by
Pima County but the City of Tucson adopted a heavily revised version
in 1979.
EXHIBIT SLIDE
From a land use planning standpoint and as a planner, I like maps and this is what I got as a land use planning map. This is kind of a cheap shot because I actually took this out of a brochure at the beginning of the process but that is the end result. I am not aware of any current map regarding a land use plan.
AERIAL PHOTO
By the 1980s, Tucson is pretty much as we recognize it today. River Road has been realigned. It is a maturing area.
EXHIBIT SLIDE:
By 1992, Pima County Comprehensive Planning Process and most of you are pretty familiar with it, I don't have too much to say about it.
EXHIBIT SLIDE: GIS Clue exhibit
It came out in two parts. One was in the late 1980s, it was a conceptual land use element and I apologize for the slide, I borrowed this from an earlier presentation. What it showed was establishing the framework for rural versus urban for Tucson and then Public Preserves are noted as well. This then formed the basis of the actual comprehensive plan recommendation.
EXHIBIT SLIDE; Reg Plan Detail
And this is a detail of how, to this day, where we are in the plan in unincorporated Pima County. Two things I find invaluable in this process. It has been very controversial and to this day, a lot of people aren't willing to give some of the recommendations that came out of this land use planning. I find it very valuable that it created uniform language. The other thing that is perhaps from a community development standpoint is that it also established that there a menu of zones that someone could rezone to based on these classifications.
Slide: CURRENT ISSUES
New Incorporations
Emerging Communities
Growing Smarter
Sonoran Desert Conservation Plan
Current issues I think that are for your discussion are new incorporations of communities and the fact that we have five or six jurisdictions. It makes planning a little more challenging. Think about what it might be like with more incorporated areas so I think whatever framework planning is established for this community in the future, it needs to have incorporated area as part of the planning. Second is what I call emerging communities, third is the Growing Smarter Legislation that was passed last year that has been implemented and discussed in the planning process.
Slide: New Incorporations
Past Efforts
1997 Proposals
Pending Towns
There have been really three levels of past efforts, primarily Green Valley and the Town of Sahuarita, 1997 proposals and the pending towns of Tortolita and Casas Adobes.
EXHIBIT SLIDE: GIS Exhibit
Slide: Emerging Communities
Traditional Communities
Lot Split Communities
There are two types, the traditional communities like Catalina, Corona de Tucson, Vails, Robles Junction areas and modern Arivaca.
Slide: Traditional Communities
Catalina
Picture Rocks
Robles Junction
Amado
Arivaca
Corona de Tucson
Vail
These are communities that may or may not grow into something larger but for right now, they are part of the planning picture. They are not the true rural areas that some people believe they are.
EXHIBIT SLIDE: GIS Exhibit
This map generally shows you where they are. You can see the relative distance from the City of Tucson.
Slide: Lot Split Communities
Catalina
Picture Rocks
Three Points
Hermans Road/Taylor Lane
Sahuarita/Wilmot
Sahuarita/Calle Rinconado
Agua Verde/Marsh Station
These are what I call lot split communities and this is a list
of probably six or seven of the most significant ones. These are
where communities are developing without infrastructure and without
subdivision plats.
EXHIBIT SLIDE: GIS Exhibit
This shows how they are closer to Tucson. I still call them an urban area even though they are outside the urban area but they may one day be our suburban communities just as Alpine in the 1930s were outside the metropolitan area and I think they have always suffered for the initial lack of service investment so I think we have to look closely at these as well.
Slide: CONCLUSIONS
Still an opportunity to influence community form
Sonoran desert conservation plan
Metro Tucson changing
Some of my conclusions are that we still have plenty of opportunities to influence the community form whether it is aesthetic recreational. Plans discussed initially involve biological impacts. There is never an opportunity that is lost. Conservation planning from Metro Tucson is changing and it is changing the traditional type of development of subdivisions into commercial/shopping center areas since the end of World War II. Thank you.
CLOSING REMARKS: SHARON BRONSON
I don't know if we have anyone here from Casas Adobes, the town too young to die. Do we have anybody? Or Tortolita, the town too tough to grow? All right, I want to thank you all for coming today. Maeveen, our next session is when? In a couple of weeks we will be back here and we will be talking about Ranching in Pima County so we will see you then. Chuck, do you have a few words? No, thank you very much for giving up your morning.
ADJOURN
The educational series adjourned at 12:30 p.m.